Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.062542 0.071716 0.082071 0.094684 0.109712 0.127142 0.149030
2025-11-23 0.049566 0.060932 0.074901 0.093539 0.118072 0.149707 0.194327
2025-11-30 0.041236 0.053834 0.070520 0.094696 0.129614 0.179491 0.258538
2025-12-07 0.034708 0.047802 0.066350 0.095355 0.141127 0.213433 0.342567
2025-12-14 0.028779 0.041510 0.060639 0.092668 0.147506 0.242833 0.434427
2025-12-21 0.023067 0.034539 0.052625 0.084689 0.143553 0.254872 0.504111
2025-12-28 0.020065 0.031244 0.049794 0.084775 0.154147 0.298545 0.665912
2026-01-04 0.017928 0.028991 0.048282 0.086962 0.169939 0.360954 0.920025
2026-01-11 0.015926 0.026633 0.046152 0.087547 0.183130 0.425653 1.243593
2026-01-18 0.014218 0.024518 0.044083 0.087820 0.196216 0.499094 1.682634
2026-01-25 0.012522 0.022157 0.041110 0.085449 0.202395 0.558998 2.161412
2026-02-01 0.010953 0.019809 0.037753 0.081413 0.203050 0.604387 2.661705
2026-02-08 0.009975 0.018515 0.036448 0.082215 0.218691 0.716669 3.762467
2026-02-15 0.009086 0.017271 0.035033 0.082441 0.233310 0.841310 5.314212
2026-02-22 0.008424 0.016406 0.034326 0.084440 0.255369 1.023853 8.044676
2026-03-01 0.007806 0.015546 0.033472 0.085855 0.276800 1.233653 12.240020
2026-03-08 0.007102 0.014397 0.031719 0.084160 0.286064 1.395484 17.129379
2026-03-15 0.006255 0.012815 0.028629 0.077548 0.272372 1.407125 19.914126
2026-03-22 0.005829 0.012156 0.027806 0.078038 0.290172 1.660728 30.774507
2026-03-29 0.005521 0.011738 0.027543 0.080367 0.318530 2.052975 53.485980
2026-04-05 0.005185 0.011208 0.026889 0.081189 0.340747 2.452621 90.518483
2026-04-12 0.004871 0.010692 0.026189 0.081678 0.362250 2.911207 157.657667
2026-04-19 0.004510 0.010016 0.024925 0.079695 0.369031 3.241107 246.566026